A market briefing from Prosperity Mortgage Partners
Global Markets
Middle East Conflict & Its Impact on Australian Inflation
The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East has caused substantial disruption to global energy markets. Oil prices have surged sharply, feeding directly into inflation expectations worldwide — including here in Australia. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has warned publicly that the energy price spike would push inflation higher, signalling that the Board is weighing whether to act sooner than previously anticipated.
Even before this latest global turbulence, Australia’s domestic inflation was already running uncomfortably hot — sitting at 3.8%, well above the RBA’s target band of 2–3%.
Reserve Bank of Australia
RBA Meeting — Decision Tuesday 17 March 2026
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Board meets this Monday and Tuesday, with the official rate decision announced at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 17 March. The February meeting already delivered a surprise — a 25 basis point rise to 3.85%, the first increase in over two years. The question now is whether the Board acts again so soon.
- NAB, Westpac and CBA have all formally forecast a 25bp increase on Tuesday, bringing the cash rate to 4.10%.
- A Reuters poll (10–12 March) found 23 out of 30 economists expect a rate rise at this meeting.
- Market pricing reflects approximately 75% probability of a hike.
- ANZ is the one major bank forecasting a pause, with potential action in May.
- All four major banks forecast the cash rate could reach 4.35% by mid-2026 if inflation persists.
- RBA Governor Michele Bullock has publicly stated that “every meeting is live.”
What a rate rise means for your repayments
Each 0.25% rise adds approximately $90 per month to a $600,000 loan on a 30-year P&I term. Two further rises by mid-2026 would add $180/month compared to today.
Fixed Rate Overview
Current Fixed Rate Home Loan Market — 15 March 2026
Lenders have already been repricing their fixed rate products in anticipation of further rate increases — in some cases multiple times in recent weeks. The figures below are indicative only and subject to lender eligibility, LVR and package conditions.
Important — rates are changing daily
This is a snapshot only. Always verify current rates directly with your lender or broker before making any decision.
| Lender | 1-Year Fixed | 2-Year Fixed |
|---|---|---|
| INGOrange Advantage Fixed | 5.74% p.a.* | 5.74% p.a.* |
| NABChoice Package Fixed | 5.74% p.a.* | 5.79% p.a.* |
| Macquarie BankBasic Home Loan Fixed | 5.84% p.a.* | 5.99% p.a.* |
| WestpacFixed Option Home Loan | 5.79% p.a.* ▾ pricing may reduce further | 5.89% p.a.* |
| ANZFixed Rate Home Loan | 5.99% p.a.* ▾ pricing may reduce further | 6.04% p.a.* |
| Commonwealth BankFixed Rate / Wealth Package | 6.19% p.a.* | 6.04% p.a.* |
| Suncorp BankHome Package Plus Fixed | 6.14% p.a.* | 6.14% p.a.* |
* Indicative rates. Owner-occupier P&I. Subject to LVR, loan size, package fees and eligibility. Source: Canstar, Money.com.au, lender websites — 15 March 2026. Rates subject to change without notice.
It is worth noting that with a number of the lenders listed above, we are often able to negotiate a better rate than the advertised price — particularly for customers with strong equity, clean credit and larger loan amounts. The advertised rate is not always the rate you have to accept.
Important Information
Understanding Rate Lock — Act Before Rates Move
If you are seriously considering fixing your rate, there is a critical step you need to be aware of: applying for a Rate Lock.
When you apply for a fixed rate loan, the rate offered today is not automatically guaranteed until your loan settles. If the lender increases its fixed rates between application and settlement — which in the current environment can happen within days — you will move to the new, higher rate unless a Rate Lock is in place.
A Rate Lock fee (typically 0.10%–0.15% of your loan amount) locks in your agreed rate for 60–90 days from application. On a $600,000 loan, this is typically $600–$900 — a small price for certainty in a rising rate environment. Given lenders are currently changing fixed rates with little notice, we strongly recommend discussing Rate Lock when you decide to proceed.
Let’s Review Your Options
If you are considering fixing your rate — whether with your existing lender or by refinancing — please reach out to me directly. At Prosperity Mortgage Partners, we will compare your current bank’s offer against the full market and help you make a confident, informed decision.
Rates are moving quickly. The window to act may be narrow.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to your circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.
